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Sign of Times-- New Af-Pak Doctrine

OF AMERICA`S

IGNORANCE ,


AND

WORLD`S

DESTINY


These days while Iran is celebrating 30 years of overthrow of Shah Pehelavi , Euro-American newspapers are full of how their intelligence completely failed to anticipate Iran`s revolution initiated by Ayatollah Khomeini. In mid-1978 , just four months before Iran erupted on Khomeini`s return from exile in Paris , and when Tehran`s streets were being daily overrun by protesting youth , CIA was reporting back that Iran was “ not in a revolutionary or even pre-revolutionary situation”. As late as September , three months before the explosion , America`s Defence Intelligence Agency was reporting back that the Shah will remain in power for next 10 years. The British were no better. Their ambassador to Iran , some Sir Anthony , a personal friend of the Shah , was advising London in May 1978 that “I do not believe there is a serious risk of an overthrow of the regime while the Shah is at the helm”. In December, the Shah and his regime collapsed .

I have a personal discovery connected with Khomeini`s revolution in Iran . I was in my mid-20s and , still in thralldom of the drill imposed by my schoolteachers about their many-splendoured value , I used to avidly read the weekly American newsmagazines Time and Newsweek. The Time`s end of the year Essay was supposed to be of incalculable wisdom , besides being very good for improving our English. Now these magazines were expensive, and we got them in select newsstands a week late. Around that time a friend had just got a job in a 5-star hotel as a management-trainee . Time and Newsweeks used to be lying around or left around in the hotel, and he used to get me a copy. The week Ayatollah Khomeini landed in Tehran airport, the week Shah and his queen fled, the week Iran`s streets were overflowing with jubilant Iranians , I was reading the previous week`s Time in which its Tehran Bureau Chief was reporting on an exhibition of Princess Pehlavi`s 3000 diamond , or some such , shoes ! That week I lost all respect for Time/Newsweek , and American journalism – for ever.

Why am I writing all this historical stuff ? This myopic eurocentricism is by now well known . After Korea , Vietnam , Iraq , even BBC openly calls its work as “embedded” journalism – not for nothing it is funded by British Foreign Office ; and brazen American`s used to schedule Iraq bombings according to CNN/NBC news schedules! No wonder America has not won any of its wars after WWII. So , why all this now ?

Well , because yesterday America`s new president Obama has ordered 17000 new troops to Afghanistan to add to its 35000 troops already there – in order to “solve” Afghanistan . When America tries to “solve” any part of the world , good men shiver.
Is Afghanistan too far away to be bothered? It used to be . But this week Pakistan government has announced a deal with Taliban that Swat valley will have separate legal system from Pakistan – almost carving out a buffer-state between Afghanistan and Pakistan .

This is no small matter. Newsmedia has done its obligatory breastbeating , but no great furore is being heard governmentally. Very intriguing indeed. Pak government is saying it is something like a provincial peculiarity, not a major policy project . Hillary Clinton in Japan is primly “studying” this agreement with Taliban , as if Pak government could , today, even dream of something so big without prolonged consultation and approval . Obama , not famous for reticence , is quiet , as if this is some obscure event . Hitman Holbrooke has visited the theatre in order to “listen”,



while making deep and Delphic statements about “common problems of 60 years” . Bill Clinton has warned that Afghanistan might turn out to be Obama`s Vietnam – he knows something others don`t ,not yet . And dusty streets of Swat are brimming with celebrating mullahs . Indian and Chinese governments are suddenly full of diplomatic correctitude!

I am getting a nasty feeling . There is some new “doctrine” at work in all this , some American doctrine to which all parties around have been joined in one way or another . Like there was in Korea , Vietnam , Iraq . We know how real life does not follow American scripts ; we have seen the fate of such doctrines . Afghanistan might turn out to be not so far as we thought .

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Had to start with politics, alas.

How maladroit can Indian govt be! Just when the US dominated unipolar world is at last ending - as noted in the Russia/Georgia fracas- it goes ahead and signs with America as a camp follower in the guise of Nuclear Deal. Without going into the merits of the issues involved , merely the cussed timing alone makes one furious. But what can you expect?